Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?

poly-0x94bbf835c1b7fa ★ POLYMARKET ★ YES/NO ★ poly-0x94bbf835c1b7fa ★ POLYMARKET ★ YES/NO ★ poly-0x94bbf835c1b7fa ★ POLYMARKET ★ YES/NO ★ poly-0x94bbf835c1b7fa ★ POLYMARKET ★ YES/NO ★ poly-0x94bbf835c1b7fa ★ POLYMARKET ★ YES/NO ★ poly-0x94bbf835c1b7fa ★ POLYMARKET ★ YES/NO ★

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Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price

YES6¢ (6%)

NO94¢ (94%)

Latest refresh · prices in cents

Polymarket • Volume: $8.9K • Updated 25m agoCloses: 2026-05-25

Polymarket · Politics

OU's Pick

YES at 6¢ · pays 16×

Price gap

Polymarket6¢

→

OU's fair12¢

+6¢ underpriced · pays 16×

Confidence

Moderate

Recent polling shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by three points in a statistically tied race which makes a margin between three and six percent a plausible but narrow outcome.

Off market consensus

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