Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES14¢ (14%)
NO86¢ (86%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $1.9K • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 86¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Polymarket86¢
→OU's fair95¢
+9¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Texas' 4th Congressional District is a safe Republican seat held by Pat Fallon and is not listed among the national Democratic targets for the 2026 midterm cycle.
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