US bank failure by June 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES50¢ (50%)
NO50¢ (50%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $4.9K • Updated 5h agoCloses: 2026-06-30 (26d)
Polymarket · Companies
OU's Pick
YES at 50¢ · pays 2.0×
Price gap
Polymarket50¢
→OU's fair70¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 2.0×
Confidence
Moderate
Search context confirms multiple US bank failures have already occurred in 2026 including an Iowa-based Citizens Bank collapse.
Wide edge+20¢
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