US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES38¢ (38%)
NO62¢ (62%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $152.4K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-07-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 63¢ · pays 1.6×
Price gap
Polymarket63¢
→OU's fair83¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 1.6×
Confidence
Moderate
Recent negotiations focus only on limited ceasefire extensions rather than a comprehensive nuclear agreement which remains stalled by significant diplomatic hurdles.
Wide edge+20¢
High volume$12k
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