US recession by end of 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
Not enough history yet for a chart.
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New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
Market price
YES22¢ (22%)
NO78¢ (78%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $1.5M • Updated 19m agoCloses: 2027-01-31
Polymarket · Companies
OU's Pick
YES at 22¢ · pays 4.5×
Price gap
Polymarket22¢
→OU's fair35¢
+13¢ underpriced · pays 4.5×
Confidence
Moderate
Major financial institutions like JP Morgan have recently increased their recession probability estimates for the 2025 and 2026 window.
Wide edge+13¢
Off market consensus
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