US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES1¢ (1%)
NO99¢ (99%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $49.8K • Updated 24m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 1¢ · pays 87×
Price gap
Polymarket1¢
→OU's fair35¢
+34¢ underpriced · pays 87×
Confidence
Moderate
While a ceasefire was established in April 2026 and negotiations are ongoing, the complexity of a permanent peace deal makes a resolution before the deadline unlikely.
Wide edge+34¢
High volume$38k
Off market consensus
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