US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES6¢ (6%)
NO94¢ (94%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $20.6K • Updated 19m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 6¢ · pays 17×
Price gap
Polymarket6¢
→OU's fair12¢
+6¢ underpriced · pays 17×
Confidence
Moderate
Senior diplomats warn of increasing risks for a direct clash while both nations maintain high military tensions and strategic pullbacks that weaken traditional deterrence.
Off market consensus
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