Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES79¢ (79%)
NO21¢ (21%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $14.4K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 79¢ · pays 1.3×
Price gap
Polymarket79¢
→OU's fair92¢
+13¢ underpriced · pays 1.3×
Confidence
Moderate
Washington's 4th district is a solidly Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democrat to Congress since 1992.
Wide edge+13¢
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