Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES31¢ (31%)
NO69¢ (69%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $330.4K • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 69¢ · pays 1.4×
Price gap
Polymarket69¢
→OU's fair72¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 1.4×
Confidence
Moderate
NOAA forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with only one to three major hurricanes expected due to the arrival of El Nino conditions.
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