Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES6¢ (6%)
NO94¢ (94%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $161.6K • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 94¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Polymarket94¢
→OU's fair95¢
+1¢ underpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate
Article 13 requires a one year notice period for withdrawal and no member state has currently submitted a formal notice of denunciation to the United States.
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