Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES7¢ (7%)
NO93¢ (93%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $10.7K • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 7¢ · pays 15×
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→OU's fair12¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 15×
Confidence
Moderate
The ODNI 2026 Annual Threat Assessment report released in March indicates that China is unlikely to initiate a full-scale invasion or blockade through 2027.
Off market consensus
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