Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES6¢ (6%)
NO94¢ (94%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $32M • Updated 51m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 6¢ · pays 16×
Price gap
Polymarket6¢
→OU's fair8¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 16×
Confidence
Moderate
A May 2026 United States intelligence report indicates that China does not have plans to invade Taiwan within the next year.
High volume$93k
Off market consensus
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