Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES2¢ (2%)
NO98¢ (98%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $8.9M • Updated 5h agoCloses: 2026-06-30
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 2¢ · pays 67×
Price gap
Polymarket2¢
→OU's fair5¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 67×
Confidence
Moderate
The March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment report indicates that China is unlikely to initiate a military invasion of Taiwan before 2027.
High volume$81k
Off market consensus
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