Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES3¢ (3%)
NO97¢ (97%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $699.5K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-09-30
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 3¢ · pays 33×
Price gap
Polymarket3¢
→OU's fair6¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 33×
Confidence
Moderate
The ODNI 2026 Annual Threat Assessment report released in March indicates that China is unlikely to initiate a military invasion of Taiwan through 2027.
High volume$61k
Off market consensus
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