Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES52¢ (52%)
NO48¢ (48%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $15.1K • Updated 24m agoCloses: 2026-09-30
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 48¢ · pays 2.1×
Price gap
Polymarket48¢
→OU's fair68¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 2.1×
Confidence
Moderate
Recent reports indicate that Russian forces are facing significant troop desertions and logistical strain while attempting to advance toward the city of Kostyantynivka.
Wide edge+20¢
Off market consensus
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