Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Market price history
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Market price
YES21¢ (21%)
NO79¢ (79%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $2.5M • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 80¢ · pays 1.3×
Price gap
Polymarket80¢
→OU's fair92¢
+12¢ underpriced · pays 1.3×
Confidence
Moderate
While the 2026 Cuban crisis involves a naval blockade of oil tankers, there is no evidence of a land invasion or military offensive to establish control over Cuban territory.
Wide edge+12¢
High volume$85k
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