Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES17¢ (17%)
NO83¢ (83%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $33.8M • Updated 51m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 17¢ · pays 6.1×
Price gap
Polymarket17¢
→OU's fair99¢
+82¢ underpriced · pays 6.1×
Confidence
High
Multiple sources confirm that the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran since February 2026.
Wide edge+82¢
High conviction
High volume$73k
Off market consensus
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