Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES7¢ (7%)
NO93¢ (93%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $431.6K • Updated 6m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 94¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Polymarket94¢
→OU's fair94¢
Confidence
Low
Historical precedent and current political incentives suggest a sitting president is extremely unlikely to voluntarily resign before the end of their term.
High volume$10k
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