Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES16¢ (16%)
NO84¢ (84%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $13.1K • Updated 52m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 85¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Polymarket85¢
→OU's fair90¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Recent ISW assessments indicate that current battlefield dynamics do not suggest a rapid Ukrainian advance into southern territory or the Crimean peninsula.
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