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World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
France★ BEST80¢
Spain80¢
England77¢
Brazil73¢
Portugal72¢
Germany70¢
Argentina70¢
Belgium61¢
Netherlands57¢
Norway55¢
Switzerland53¢
Mexico49¢
Colombia48¢
USA46¢
Turkiye45¢
Morocco43¢
Uruguay42¢
Ecuador42¢
Croatia39¢
Canada39¢
Japan39¢
Senegal31¢
Austria29¢
South Korea29¢
Ivory Coast28¢
Czechia28¢
Egypt28¢
Paraguay26¢
Sweden26¢
Scotland25¢
Bosnia and Herzegovina24¢
Algeria22¢
Iran20¢
Ghana18¢
Australia17¢
DR Congo14¢
South Africa14¢
Tunisia12¢
Saudi Arabia10¢
Panama9¢
Cape Verde8¢
New Zealand8¢
Uzbekistan8¢
Qatar8¢
Iraq5¢
Jordan5¢
Haiti4¢
Curacao3¢
Polymarket • Volume: $65.7K • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-07-04 (30d)
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
YES · France
at 80¢
Price gap
Polymarket80¢
→
OU's fair90¢
+10¢ underpriced · pays 1.3×
Confidence
Moderate

France is a top-seeded favorite in Group I alongside Senegal and Norway in the expanded 48-team tournament format.

High volume$26k
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