Over / Under · Market Intelligence
Sharpest Mispricings
The live Kalshi and Polymarket markets where Over/Under's AI fair value diverges most from the current market price — our highest-confidence reads on where the line looks wrong. Updated June 4, 2026.
Ranked by the gap between our fair value and the market, filtered to liquid markets with a confident read. Each links to the full analysis and resolution source.
| # | Market | Market | OU Fair | Gap | OU's read | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by...? PolymarketCBS News reports that President Trump ordered the public release of UFO files earlier this year and they are now availab… | 63¢ | 99¢ | 99¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 2 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? PolymarketMultiple reports confirm high-level diplomatic meetings between US and Iranian officials occurred in April 2025 and Febr… | 1¢ | 99¢ | 99¢ | underpriced | High |
| 3 | Will The Odyssey be delayed? KalshiSearch context confirms Universal Pictures delayed the film from its original July 17 release date to December 18 to avo… | 5¢ | 99¢ | 96¢ | underpriced | High |
| 4 | Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? PolymarketPresident Trump officially announced the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on June 3 2026 following a proposed ag… | 46¢ | 99¢ | 92¢ | underpriced | High |
| 5 | Will Tesla release a two door Model Y car for $30,000 or less before 2027? KalshiMajor automotive publications report that the 2026 Tesla Model Y refresh is already available for review and purchase as… | 5¢ | 95¢ | 91¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 6 | Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30? PolymarketReports from June 2026 indicate SpaceX has filed for an IPO with a valuation reaching the $2.5 trillion mark on secondar… | 100¢ | 95¢ | 86¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 7 | Where will Trump and Putin meet next? PolymarketMultiple reports confirm President Trump announced a summit with Vladimir Putin scheduled for August 15 in Alaska. | 0¢ | 85¢ | 85¢ | underpriced | High |
| 8 | How many cities will Waymo operate in by June 30? PolymarketWaymo has already announced expansion into five new cities including Houston and Orlando for 2026 which brings their tot… | 25¢ | 85¢ | 85¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 9 | Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? KalshiMultiple reports from June 3 and June 4 indicate Trump's approval rating has fallen to a term low of 37 percent which is… | 87¢ | 1¢ | 84¢ | overpriced | High |
| 10 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30? PolymarketRecent reports indicate Anthropic is already raising capital at a valuation of nine hundred billion dollars which exceed… | 52¢ | 85¢ | 84¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 11 | Who visited Epstein's Island? PolymarketFlight logs and unsealed court documents confirm Bill Clinton traveled on Epstein's private jet to various locations inc… | 2¢ | 85¢ | 83¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 12 | Will AI regulation become law in 2026? KalshiThe European Union AI Act entered into force on August 1 2024 and its primary prohibitions became applicable in early 20… | 19¢ | 99¢ | 82¢ | underpriced | High |
| 13 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketMultiple sources confirm that the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran since February 2026. | 17¢ | 99¢ | 82¢ | underpriced | High |
| 14 | Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? KalshiThe proposed billionaire tax measure targets wealth as of December 31 2026 which falls after the contract resolution dea… | 90¢ | 10¢ | 80¢ | overpriced | Medium |
| 15 | What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of June 1 2026? PolymarketCurrent WTI prices are reported at $89.66 as of June 2 2026 with market volatility and support levels near $85 according… | 1¢ | 85¢ | 80¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 16 | Will NYC buses become free before 2027? KalshiThe 2026-2027 state budget plan includes funding for free NYC buses according to reports from Zohran Mamdani. | 6¢ | 85¢ | 79¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 17 | Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year? KalshiProduction for the final season is confirmed to be underway with a release window widely expected to fall within the 202… | 7¢ | 85¢ | 77¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 18 | Will Justin Bieber have a #1 hit this year? KalshiJustin Bieber returned to the top of global charts following his Coachella 2026 performance and maintains a massive mont… | 11¢ | 82¢ | 72¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 19 | Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? KalshiMayor Mamdani has explicitly included a corporate tax rate increase from 7.25 to 11.5 percent as a core pillar of his pr… | 11¢ | 75¢ | 66¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 20 | Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? KalshiMayor Mamdani has already established an Office of Community Safety and released an implementation guide for the full de… | 13¢ | 75¢ | 63¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 21 | Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? KalshiThe NYC Rent Guidelines Board historically approves small increases rather than freezes and the 2026 cycle has not yet r… | 71¢ | 15¢ | 57¢ | overpriced | Medium |
| 22 | Mike Tyson and Floyd Mayweather to Fight in 2026 KalshiA TMZ report states that Mike Tyson and Floyd Mayweather have agreed to a boxing match scheduled for the spring of 2026. | 13¢ | 65¢ | 53¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 23 | Will Sadie Sink be the next Jean Grey? KalshiSearch context indicates Sadie Sink has already joined the Marvel Cinematic Universe in a different role for the film Sp… | 72¢ | 15¢ | 53¢ | overpriced | Medium |
| 24 | Will an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York? KalshiNew York State Senator Kristen Gonzalez introduced bill S7263 to address AI impersonation but the legislative process fo… | 69¢ | 25¢ | 50¢ | overpriced | Medium |
| 25 | Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? KalshiYe is already collaborating with an Israeli crew for his performance in Georgia which indicates active professional ties… | 21¢ | 65¢ | 49¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 26 | Will President Trump be impeached during his term? KalshiHistorical data shows that while President Trump was impeached twice he was acquitted by the Senate both times and curre… | 61¢ | 15¢ | 46¢ | overpriced | Medium |
| 27 | Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner PolymarketJennifer Jenkins is actively campaigning for the seat and has received significant media attention as a primary challeng… | 1¢ | 45¢ | 44¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 28 | Will a new main Fast & Furious film be officially announced in 2026? KalshiProduction schedules for Fast 11 indicate a 2026 release window which necessitates official marketing and title announce… | 32¢ | 75¢ | 42¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 29 | Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner PolymarketAdam Schwarze secured the official Republican Party endorsement for the U.S. Senate seat over Michele Tafoya according t… | 4¢ | 55¢ | 41¢ | underpriced | Medium |
| 30 | Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? KalshiClimate studies indicate that exceeding the two degree threshold is most likely to occur between the 2040s and 2070s dep… | 76¢ | 35¢ | 40¢ | overpriced | Medium |
Over/Under is independent analysis, not financial advice. Fair values are AI-generated estimates and may be wrong. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Figures reflect the most recent refresh and move continuously.